Simple linear regressions of hourly wind output vs. hourly net exports for a couple of time periods yield the following:
- For all of 2010, the regression coefficient is 20.5% with an R Square of 4.2%.
- For January 2011, the regression coefficient is 29.5% with an R Square of 8.7%.
The low R Square appears to be a function of high volatility in both wind output and net exports. (Note that Ontario is sometimes a net importer.) However, the regression coefficients suggest that a substantial fraction of Ontario’s loss making exports are driven by wind power.
Ontario’s average revenue from electricity exports in 2010 was 3.4 cents/kWh. The average cost of power was almost 7 cents/kWh and the cost of power contracted in 2010 would be at least 15 cents/kWh. (Please provide a better estimate if you have one.)